South Korean Presidential Election: Opposition’s Yoon Wins Tight Race for South Korean Presidency (Published 2022) (2024)

SEOUL — The graft prosecutor turned opposition leader, Yoon Suk-yeol, won a tight presidential election in South Korea on Thursday, reinstating conservatives to power with calls for a tougher and more confrontational stance on North Korea and a stronger alliance with the United States.

Mr. Yoon’s progressive rival, Lee Jae-myung of the governing Democratic Party, conceded defeat just before 4 a.m. Thursday. At the time, 98 percent of the votes had been counted and Mr. Yoon, of the ​conservative ​opposition People Power Party, ​was ​leading by a margin of 263,000 votes, according to ​the tally ​provided by the National Election Commission.

Mr. Yoon replaces President Moon Jae-in, a progressive leader whose single five-year term ends in May. His victory returns conservatives to power after five years in the political wilderness. His People Power Party had been in disarray following the impeachment of its former boss, ex-President Park Geun-hye, who was convicted of corruption.

Mr. Yoon, an anti-corruption crusader who helped imprison Ms. Park, was recruited by the party to engineer a conservative revival. Washington and South Korea’s neighbors closely watched the election because Mr. Yoon’s election could potentially upend Mr. Moon’s ​progressive agenda, especially his ​trademark policy of seeking dialogue and peace with North Korea. ​

SEOUL — The top two contenders in South Korea’s presidential election were neck and neck as ballots were tallied early into Thursday morning, in a sign of the divisive and contentious race to choose the country’s next leader.

With more than 90 percent of the votes counted as of 2:40 a.m. Thursday, Yoon Suk-yeol, of the conservative People Power Party, was 0.85 percentage points ahead of Lee Jae-myung, the governing Democratic Party’s candidate, according to South Korea’s National Election Commission.

The race between the two men had been so plagued by a series of scandals and marred by mudslinging between the parties that some in the electorate took to calling it a contest between two “unlikables.” Still, more than three quarters of South Koreans cast their vote, rivaling voter turnout from the country’s last presidential election in 2017.

Mr. Yoon is an outsider with no political experience who rose to prominence as a prosecutor in both conservative and liberal administrations. Mr. Lee, a former human rights lawyer, is a longtime politician with populist economic policies. He was most recently governor of Gyeonggi Province, South Korea’s most populous state.

Polls in the weeks leading up to the election showed voters nearly evenly split between the two front-runners in a crowded field of 14 candidates.

The election was widely seen as a referendum on President Moon Jae-in, who pushed for engagement and dialogue with North Korea. A victory for Mr. Yoon would be a blow for the Moon administration, which came to power five years ago in a landslide amid high hopes in the wake of his predecessor’s impeachment.

While the election will be consequential for South Korea’s foreign policy with the United States, China and Japan, South Koreans have been largely preoccupied with domestic issues including soaring housing prices, a cutthroat job market and contentious divisions over gender.

Voters went to the polls as the country reported a record number of daily coronavirus infections. Those who tested positive for the virus or were a close contact cast their votes during a designated time slot after the regular polls closed at 6 p.m. local time.

Choe Sang-Hun contributed reporting.

There is broad consensus among polling experts that younger voters, especially those in their 20s, will likely determine the winner in the election. But rival candidates have had trouble connecting with them.

Unlike past generations, these voters are not easily swayed by traditional election issues, such as regional allegiance, loyalty to political bosses, fear of North Korea or a desire to build inter-Korean peace. Instead, they say economic despair and​ deep frustration, especially over sky-high housing prices, are among their most important concerns.

A series of scandals that have rocked the country in recent years helped fuel their disillusionment. When President Moon Jae-in took office in 2017, he promised to level the playing field for everyone. But his government was soon embroiled in corruption scandals that only deepened the frustration.

“The rich​ and powerful​ live in their own world,” said Shin Seo-yoon, 22, a student at Seojeong University north of Seoul. “For the rest of us, owning a house has become a more and more distant dream.”

Lee Jae-myung, the candidate representing ​Mr. Moon’s Democratic Party​, is popular among voters in their 40s and 50s, while his chief rival, Yoon Suk-yeol​ from the conservative opposition People Power Party​, has a solid lead among people in their 60s and older.

Whoever wins the confidence of people in their ​20s and 30s ​will most likely win the election, polling experts say. “Young people broke ranks with the progressives because they were disappointed with the progressive government,” said Heo Jin-jae, a director of research at Gallup Korea.

Mr. Yoon and Mr. Lee have both sought to appeal to young South Koreans, promising to make homes more affordable, jobs more available and society “just and fair.” But they have diverged on one issue: gender.

Mr. Yoon has galvanized young male voters with a promise to abolish the ministry of gender equality, which some have complained gives unnecessary benefits to women. “There is no longer any structural gender-based discrimination” in South Korea, Mr. Yoon said in an interview in February.

Mr. Lee called Mr. Yoon a “populist​” who has weaponized gender conflict for votes. “We will have to see whether women in their 20s will rally behind Lee,” said Ahn Byong-jin, a political scientist at Kyung Hee University in Seoul.

The World Economic Forum ranks South Korea 102 out of 156 nations in ​its gender gap index.

As a star prosecutor, Yoon Suk-yeol, the leading conservative candidate, helped imprison two former presidents as well as the head of Samsung and a former chief justice of the country’s Supreme Court on charges of corruption.

Now, Mr. Yoon hopes to become president himself by appealing to South Koreans who are deeply dissatisfied with the outgoing president, Moon Jae-in.

Mr. Moon’s government and his Democratic Party have been rocked by a series of scandals that exposed ethical lapses and policy failures around sky-high housing prices, growing income inequality and a lack of social mobility.

“Up until recently, I had never imagined entering politics,” Mr. Yoon said in a recent campaign speech. “But the people put me in the position I am in now, on a mission to remove the incompetent and corrupt Democratic Party from power.”

Mr. Yoon was born in Seoul on Dec. 18, 1960. His father was a college professor and his mother a former teacher. A graduate of the Seoul National University, he became a prosecutor in 1994 after passing the bar exam on his ninth try. He eventually made his name as an anti-corruption investigator who didn’t flinch under political pressure while going after some of the country’s richest and most powerful.

“I don’t owe my loyalty to anyone,” Mr. Yoon famously said during a parliamentary hearing in 2013.

It was under Mr. Moon that Mr. Yoon became a household name in South Korea, first as senior investigator and then as prosecutor general. He spearheaded the president’s anti-corruption campaign, investigating the links between Samsung, South Korea’s most powerful conglomerate, and two former conservative presidents, Park Geun-hye and her predecessor, Lee Myung-bak.

But then Mr. Yoon started clashing with Mr. Moon’s government, as prosecutors under his leadership began investigating allegations of wrongdoing involving the president’s political allies, such as Cho Kuk, a former justice minister.

The conservative opposition, which had earlier vilified Mr. Yoon as a political henchman, suddenly began calling him a hero. Last year, he stepped down as prosecutor general and won the presidential nomination from the main conservative People Power Party. If elected, he would be the first former prosecutor to become president in South Korea.

Although this presidential bid is Mr. Yoon’s first try at elected office, he has a powerful support base among conservative South Koreans who want to punish Mr. Moon’s government for its perceived policy failures, yet have no confidence in the current leadership of the People Power Party.

“Yoon is like Trump,” said Kim Hyung-joon, a political scientist at Myongji University in Seoul. “He is an outsider running to shake up the establishment.”

South Korea’s leading liberal candidate, Lee Jae-myung, started his presidential bid with a speech that spoke squarely to the country’s simmering angst and its struggling middle class.

“We’ve got to usher in a world where all can live well together, take care of the weak, and curb the vanity of the strong, who often resort to privilege and foul play,” Mr. Lee said in a video address last summer.

But the greatest challenge for the labor-lawyer-turned-politician in this race, experts say, is his need to represent the ruling Democratic Party while also distinguishing himself from President Moon Jae-in.

Though Mr. Moon has enjoyed high approval ratings compared to most South Korean presidents, the country has continued to suffer from runaway housing prices and a youth unemployment crisis under his watch.

Born in 1964 in the small eastern town of Andong, in North Gyeongsang Province, Mr. Lee became known as the former “factory boy” and the son of a house cleaner who rose out of poverty to become a successful mayor and governor.

One of seven children, he skipped middle school to work at various factories in the northwestern city of Seongnam, roughly 12.5 miles from Seoul. According to Mr. Lee, several workplace accidents — including one where his arm was caught in a press machine — left him legally disabled by his late teens, when South Korea exempted him from its mandatory military service.

Mr. Lee then earned a high school equivalency degree and won a scholarship to Seoul’s Chung-Ang University. After graduating, he returned to the town he worked in as a child to open his own office as a labor lawyer.

On the stump, he has long credited those experiences as his inspiration for entering politics. He was elected Seongnam’s mayor in 2010, a post he held for about eight years. During that time, he created a citywide social welfare program, introduced a modest universal basic income program for young adults, and provided free access to school uniforms and postnatal care.

As the governor of Gyeonggi, South Korea’s most populous province, from 2018 to 2021, Mr. Lee impressed voters by swiftly addressing a series of issues that became hot political topics. Among them: He pushed for expanding the use of surveillance cameras in hospital operating rooms after the discovery that some doctors were assigning unlicensed staff to perform surgery. He also led successful efforts to provide residents with stimulus money during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Unlike his main rival, the firebrand former chief prosecutor Yoon Suk-yeol, Mr. Lee has spoken in favor of economic cooperation with North Korea. He is the only candidate to have promised a universal basic income plan that would eventually distribute at least 1 million won (about $814) to all citizens per year.

His plan would also scale up to offer a higher sum of 2 million won — at least $1,629 per year — to 19- to 29-year-olds annually, a demographic that both candidates are vigorously competing for.

— Kelly Kasulis Cho

SEOUL — As some South Korean voters trickled out of polling stations on an unseasonably warm Election Day, others lingered in the voting booths, ballot in hand.

“Past elections used to be clearly swayed toward one person, but now it’s different,” said one voter, Kim Do-hyung, 29, who said he is preparing to apply for jobs in the information technology sector. “There are many people around me who are having a hard time deciding.”

In interviews, many voters expressed uncertainty over their pick because the scandals and negative campaigning that had plagued much of the presidential race made neither of the two front-runners, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol, appear desirable. South Korean media have referred to the race as a “mud fight” and an election of “unlikables.”

But voter turnout by late afternoon on Wednesday was higher than it was around the same time in the last two presidential elections, likely driven in part by the expectation that this would be a close race.

Public opinion polls last week showed a razor-thin margin between the two leading candidates. By comparison, President Moon Jae-in won nearly 5.6 million more votes than the runner-up in 2017 — the largest margin of victory since the country began holding democratic elections in the late 1980s.

“This election feels more complicated than five years ago,” said Ji Hee-yeon, 65, who said she had made a last-minute decision in the polling booth. “My mind always kept changing. I didn’t know who would be a good choice.”

Ahn Da-young, 29, said she didn’t arrive at a decision until the day before she voted early on Saturday, when she chose Sim Sang-jung, a third-party candidate and one of few women hopefuls.

“I don’t think she will be elected, but I didn’t simply want to pick someone that I disliked less,” Ms. Ahn said. “She was the candidate that I most wanted to choose in terms of their political views.”

The disenchantment of some voters could stem from anxiety about the state of the country, which is currently dealing with an Omicron surge. On Wednesday, new daily cases surpassed 342,000, and 1.2 million people were being treated for Covid-19, nearly a quarter of the total cases recorded by the country since the pandemic’s start.

Voters also expressed disappointment with the current government, citing hardships such as the country’s runaway housing prices. While Mr. Moon enjoyed a historically high approval rating earlier in his term, it dropped to 45 percent last week, according to Gallup Korea. Many voters said this election would be a judgment of his administration.

“The current administration scores zero in my book,” said Lee Jae-don, 81, a retiree. “It hasn’t done a single thing right.”

Even Park Seo-youl, 37, who voted for Mr. Lee, the candidate of Mr. Moon’s party, said she chose him because she hoped he would enact the most reform.

“I think he is the candidate who will change something,” said Ms. Park, a translator in Seoul. “Reform is overdue.”

The election also coincided with a deepening bitterness over South Korea’s well documented income gap and gender inequality.

“What upsets me more than anything else is that this seems to be an era where men and women are more divided, the rich and the poor are farther apart and people distrust one another more,” said Stella Lee, 36, who works at an architecture firm in Seoul.

“The seeds of distrust are everywhere,” she added. “I don’t think they’ll go away anytime soon.”

The policy differences between the two leading presidential candidates on North Korea could not be more clear.

Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Party, has emphasized building peace: “We have seen the Russian invasion affecting South Korean stock prices on the other side of the globe,” he said during the campaign. “This is what war and instability does to the economy. Peace is our economy; peace is our food.”

Yoon Suk-yeol, the candidate ​representing the conservative opposition, has been more confrontational: “Peace can be preserved only when we have a surefire deterrence,” he said during a TV debate​​. “War can be avoided only when we acquire an ability to laun​ch pre-emptive strikes and show our willingness to use them​.”

South Korea’s policy on North Korea — and its relations with its key partners and neighbors like the United States, China and Japan — could drastically change depending on who wins the election. North Korea occupies the center of South Korea’s foreign policy, and South Korea’s approach to the North has at different time put it in sync — or at odds — with its key allies.

Mr. Lee has vowed to continue President Moon Jae-in’s policy, arguing that North Korea’s nuclear program can be rolled back only through a phased process in which the United States and its allies reward the North with incentives, including easing sanctions. Mr. Yoon has insisted that international sanctions should remain until North Korea is completely denuclearized.

North Korea has already conducted several missile tests this year, in violation of international sanctions. It is expected to use more provocations to test whomever wins the election.

In their campaign platforms, neither candidate expressed interest in reunification with North Korea. Both Mr. Lee and Mr. Yoon have tried to attract more young voters, who harbor great fear around the economic uncertainty that reunification would cause. In a survey last October, just 44.2 percent of the respondents in their 20s supported reunification, compared with 64.6 percent among those in their 50s.

“We don’t feel a strong bond with the North Koreans or with the idea that the two Koreas are parts of one greater nation,” said Jang Seong-weon, 24, a student at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul. “The division has lasted so long we are used to the situation as it is.”

As China’s single largest trading partner, South Korea has usually ​gone out of its way to get along well with Beijing. Seoul also considers China’s role crucial in international efforts to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. But when Yoon Suk-yeol, one of the leading ​candidates for president, said that “our people, especially most of the young people, don’t like China,” he was giving voice to an important shift in South Korea.

In recent surveys, China has replaced Japan, South Korea’s former colonial ruler, as the foreign country South Koreans view the most unfavorably.

By paying political attention to young South Koreans’ anti-Chinese sentiments during election season, Mr. Yoon was wooing their votes.

“I don’t like China,” said Kim Seong-heon, 26, a student at Kookmin University in Seoul, who said he was considering voting for Mr. Yoon. “If you ask me what I like about Japan, I can mention a few things. But if you ask the same question about China, I say nothing, except for its food, perhaps.”

Mr. Yoon, the candidate of the main opposition People Power Party, commanded solid support among two voting blocs with misgivings about North Korea and China: people in their 60s and older, and men in their 20s, according to pre-election surveys.

Mr. Yoon has vowed to align South Korea more closely with its traditional ally, the United States, and to upend what he called the current government’s “partial to China” foreign policy.

If elected, he said he would support the deployment of an additional advanced missile defense battery from the United States, dismissing bitter protests from Beijing that the weapons system was aimed at China. When the first such unit was deployed in 2017, China retaliated by shutting down tourism to South Korea and banning K-pop entertainment.

Mr. Yoon’s main rival, Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the governing Democratic Party, has said he favors a diplomacy “balanced” between the United States and China as the rivalry between the giants intensifies. He said Mr. Yoon’s approach to China would hurt the South Korean economy by raising unnecessary tensions in the region.

“Rather than trying to avoid war and build peace, he sounds hellbent on intensifying a confrontation,” Mr. Lee said during a recent TV debate. “The economy needs stability for growth.”

Despite robust economic ties, South Korea and China, especially their young people, have engaged in highly emotional tussles on the internet over the origins of kimchi and paocai, the traditional Korean dress of hanbok, and historical claims to the ancient kingdom of Koguryo.

In a survey of South Koreans conducted in December, 56 percent of the respondents said that China would become the biggest threat to South Korea in the next 10 years, according to a research paper published in February by the Carnegie Endowment and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

“Once regarded as a place of economic opportunities for Korea, China is increasingly losing favor as Koreans, led by young people, begin to rethink what China means to their nation,” said another study, which was published in February by Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

South Koreans head to the polls Wednesday to vote in one of the most tightly fought presidential elections in recent memory, with several policy issues — North Korea and sky-high home prices; gender inequality and a decaying job market — roiling voters.

According to pre-election surveys, the race is a close contest between Lee Jae-myung, of President Moon Jae-in’s Democratic Party, and Yoon Suk-yeol, a former prosecutor representing the conservative opposition, the People Power Party.

The election comes as South Korea is projecting influence around the world like never before. The small nation of just over 50 million people has long punched above its weight in manufacturing and technology, but more recently has added film, television and music to its list of successful global exports.

At home, however, voters are unhappy.

Housing prices are out of reach. A demographic crisis has left farms and small factories struggling to find workers, even as legions of people fresh out of college complain about a lack of job opportunities. Discrimination against foreigners is on the rise. Young people say they can’t catch a break. And the intense uncertainty, partly brought on by years of Covid restrictions, has left many anxious about the future.

“There is a growing angst over the future of the country as inequality deepened and gender and generational conflicts intensified,” said Eom Kyeong-young, director at the Zeitgeist Institute in Seoul. Whoever becomes the next president will have to contend with a bitter and disillusioned public.

Mr. Lee is a straight-talking former sweatshop worker and human rights lawyer with a reputation for delivering results as a popular mayor and governor in Gyeonggi-do, the province that surrounds Seoul. He says South Korea needs a leader from a working-class background who “shines during crises.”

Mr. Yoon, a former prosecutor, was instrumental in imprisoning two former presidents, as well as the head of Samsung, on corruption charges. His political stock rose after he resigned as prosecutor general last year and became an outspoken critic of Mr. Moon’s tenure.

Both candidates have struggled to connect with voters and led campaigns marred by scandal.

New allegations keep emerging that cast doubt on the ethical standards of both men and their families, including of corruption, nepotism and sexism. “This is a contest between the unlikable, a choice of who is the lesser evil,” said Ahn Byong-jin, a political scientist at Kyung Hee University in Seoul.

They also hold drastically different policy positions, particularly on North Korea, which has recently launched a series of weapons tests that have threatened regional security.

During his administration, Mr. Moon brokered the historic meetings between President Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea. His signature policy ambition was to build peace with North Korea through dialogue and cooperation, an agenda Mr. Lee would inherit if elected.

“The key to our policy on the Korean Peninsula is to prevent war from breaking out again and to prevent the loss of millions of lives and everything we have achieved so far,” Mr. Lee said during a recent campaign event.

Mr. Yoon favors a more confrontational stance, reflecting a popular view among older conservatives. He has called North Korea the country’s “principal enemy” and threatened “pre-emptive strikes.”

Politics in South Korea have long been considered a blood sport. The country’s hard-won democracy came after decades of poverty, political unrest and successive dictatorships. All former presidents have faced allegations of corruption in retirement.

The two most recent former presidents ended up in prison, including Park Geun-hye, the country’s first and only female president. Two former military-backed dictators were also imprisoned.

In one intersection in midtown Seoul, traffic stood still as campaign volunteers wearing red jackets and carrying signs poured onto the streets and began to dance. “Yoon Suk-yeol, a president that changes our tomorrow” read their signs, which featured a headshot of the candidate, the leading conservative in the race.

Such scenes are common during election season in South Korea, where campaigning has been elevated to an art form featuring street teams and flash mobs brimming with passionate supporters.

Flatbed trucks roll through the streets, blaring theme songs specially written for candidates with catchy lyrics like “Run with full force, No. 1 Lee Jae-myung,” referring to the leading liberal candidate. Street teams wear color-coded outfits and dance to simple choreography during red lights in traffic. LED screens with candidates’ faces glow behind them.

Politicians rely on such tactics — flashy but festive — to grab attention in the short few weeks of official campaigning. Candidates “have to do everything they can to get as much support in a short amount of time, and dancing is one of the few options they have,” says Professor Park Won-ho of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University.

South Korea is a democracy with a presidential system, just like the United States, but the similarities largely end there. Here are some of the main differences:

• While the Electoral College perplexes even Americans, South Korea has a pluralistic, direct vote — the candidate with the most votes gets to be president.

• The president serves only one term, which lasts five years.

• There are a lot more candidates. In this election season, 14 people ran for president, but party mergers left the final ballot at 12.

• Party mergers? They are a thing in South Korea, where politicians are less loyal to their parties, and party names change frequently. Like-minded parties can join forces against a shared rival, as happened last week when Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party dropped out to merge with the main opposition candidate, Yoon Suk-yeol, on the eve of early voting.

• Voter turnout is higher. According to government statistics, South Korea’s 2017 presidential election had turnout of 77.2 percent. There are roughly 44 million eligible voters in the country, which has a population of about 52 million people. Turnout in the 2020 U.S. election, which according to government data was the highest in over a century, was only 66.8 percent.

• Campaigns are mercifully brief by American standards. South Korea’s 2022 presidential campaign kicked off in mid-February, giving candidates less than a month to officially rally supporters.

• Democracy is young here, only established in 1987 after popular protests brought an end to a military dictatorship.

According to one expert, South Korea’s relatively new democracy and its pluralistic voting system help explain the country’s enthusiastic voting culture. “Citizens are directly picking their president, as opposed to the Electoral College,” said Park Won-ho, a professor of political science at Seoul National University. “There is a high level of pride in that, especially as the nation comes from an authoritarian regime in which citizens had no vote.”

The South Korean media has called it an election of “unlikables.”

The country’s presidential race has been peppered by a spate of scandals that have left the public feeling apathetic about the two leading candidates. Some of the accusations have been trivial or unfounded — one involved ridicule around an anal acupuncturist — others have led to serious government investigations.

The conservative front-runner, Yoon Suk-yeol, has made several public gaffes, from carelessly putting his feet up on the seat of a public train to stating that Chun Doo-hwan, the brutal former dictator, “governed well except for the military coup.”

But the biggest scandals dogging Mr. Yoon’s campaign have involved his family.

Last year, his mother-in-law was convicted of fraud and sentenced to three years in prison. She was later acquitted. His wife, Kim Keon-hee, was caught in leaked phone recordings saying that she would jail critical reporters if her husband became president and insinuating that women come forward in the #MeToo movement when men don’t pay them. Mr. Yoon and Ms. Kim later apologized for the remarks. Ms. Kim has also been accused of taking part in stock manipulation at a used car dealership — a case that has led to a government investigation.

The leading liberal candidate, Lee Jae-myung, has had to contend with his own missteps and allegations.

A real estate scandal that dates back to his days as mayor of Seongnam, a city just outside Seoul, has troubled his presidential campaign from the beginning. The opposition accused Mr. Lee of helping a small firm make millions from a public-private housing project through rigged public bidding, an allegation he has denied. Mr. Lee has said he was unaware of any illegal acts involving the project and did not personally profit from it.

As with Mr. Yoon, Mr. Lee’s family has been the subject of frequent criticism. His wife, Kim Hye-kyung, was accused of using public funds to pay for personal goods while he was governor of Gyeonggi Province — a case that led to a wider investigation. And in a 2012 phone call that was leaked on YouTube, Mr. Lee can be heard cursing at family members. He later apologized.

“You often hear, ‘vote for the lesser of two evils,’” said Katharine H.S. Moon, a professor emeritus of political science at Wellesley College. “Both candidates have not even gotten close to the Blue House,” she said, referring to South Korea’s official executive residence. And yet, “they’re already tainted with corruption scandals within their families.”

— Kelly Kasulis Cho